Home/Housing/Mortgage Activity

US Mortgage Activity

Application volume, rates & spreads, the “golden handcuff,” and stress indicators — sourced live from the MBA, Freddie Mac, the Federal Reserve, and BEA.

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MBA Mortgage Applications

Refinance index (left) & purchase index (right) — index 3/16/1990 = 100, SA

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Source: Mortgage Bankers Association — Weekly Applications Survey. History to Jan 1990 seeded in-house; weekly updates from the MBA press release.

30-Year vs 15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate

Freddie Mac PMMS, weekly

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Source: Freddie Mac via FRED — MORTGAGE30US, MORTGAGE15US.

30-Year Mortgage − 10-Year Treasury Spread

Weekly; blew out historically wide post-2022

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Source: Freddie Mac + U.S. Treasury via FRED — MORTGAGE30US − DGS10 (DGS10 averaged over the trailing 5 business days).

“Golden Handcuff”: Market Rate vs Effective Rate on Outstanding Debt

Monthly; 30Y PMMS vs effective rate on outstanding mortgage debt

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Sources: Freddie Mac via FRED — MORTGAGE30US (monthly mean). U.S. BEA — NIPA mortgage interest paid, owner- and tenant-occupied residential housing.

Mortgage Delinquency Rate

Single-family residential at all commercial banks; quarterly, SA

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Source: Federal Reserve Board via FRED — DRSFRMACBS.

Mortgage Debt Outstanding

1-4 family residential mortgage balance; quarterly, $ trillions, NSA

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Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York — Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit (HHDC), mortgage component.

Housing Affordability Index

NAR fixed-rate index, SA; 100 = median income exactly qualifies for median-priced home

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Source: National Association of Realtors. History to Jan 1981; new months scraped from the NAR press release and seasonally adjusted in-house.

Median Home Price ÷ Median Household Income

Quarterly ratio; both nominal, current dollars

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Sources: U.S. Census Bureau / HUD — MSPUS (quarterly NSA); U.S. Census Bureau quarterly nominal median household income (seeded in-house, extended via Census P-60).