Time range:
Tip: click any legend label below a chart to hide or show that series. Each chart can be downloaded as a CSV or embedded into a blog post. The time range applies to all six charts at once.
Yield Curve — Today vs. One Year Ago
(Treasury Constant-Maturity Yields, %; Steeper Curve = Stronger Growth Expectations)
Source: U.S. Treasury via FRED — DGS3MO, DGS2, DGS5, DGS10, DGS30. Download CSV
10-Year Treasury Yield
(Constant-Maturity Yield, %; The Single Most-Watched Rate in Markets)
Source: U.S. Treasury via FRED — DGS10. Download CSV
10-Year Minus 2-Year Spread
(Recession Indicator — Below Zero = Inverted Curve, a Reliable Pre-Recession Signal Since 1980)
Source: FRED — T10Y2Y (publishable spread), DGS10 minus DGS2. Download CSV
Fed Funds vs. 10-Year Treasury
(Policy Rate vs. Long-Term Market Yield; Fed Funds Above 10Y = Restrictive Stance)
Source: FRED — DFF (Fed Funds Effective), DGS10. Download CSV
Real 10-Year Yield & Inflation Expectations
(Decomposing the Nominal 10Y into Real Yield + 10Y Breakeven Inflation; Available 2003-)
Source: FRED — DGS10 (nominal), DFII10 (TIPS / real), T10YIE (breakeven). Download CSV
Corporate Credit Spreads (IG vs. HY)
(Option-Adjusted Spread to Treasuries, %; Widening = Stress, Tightening = Risk-On)
Source: FRED — ICE BofA US Corporate (BAMLC0A0CM) and US High Yield (BAMLH0A0HYM2). Public-API history is licensed-limited to ~3 years. Download CSV