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Industry Surveys — ISM, Cass & NFIB

The forward-looking layer on top of the hard data: ISM Manufacturing & Services PMIs and sub-indices, the Cass Freight Index, and NFIB small-business optimism & uncertainty. PMIs above 50 = expansion.

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ISM Manufacturing Index

Diffusion index, SA; 50 = expansion / contraction threshold + sub-indices

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Source: Institute for Supply Management — Manufacturing Report on Business.

ISM Manufacturing — Major Components

Bars represent distance from 50; SA — total / employment / new orders / backlog / prices

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Source: Institute for Supply Management — Manufacturing Report on Business.

ISM Services Index

Diffusion index, SA — composite + employment / new orders / prices

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Source: Institute for Supply Management — Services Report on Business.

Composite PMI — Manufacturing vs. Services

ISM Manufacturing total + ISM Services composite, with the 50 threshold

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Source: Institute for Supply Management — Manufacturing & Services Reports on Business.

Cass Freight Shipments — Year-over-Year %

Volume index, % change vs. same month a year ago — negative = freight recession

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Source: Cass Information Systems — Cass Freight Index (shipments).

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

Diffusion-style index, SA; 1986 = 100; ~98 long-run average shown dashed

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Source: National Federation of Independent Business — Small Business Economic Trends (SBET).

NFIB Small Business Uncertainty Index

Net %, SA; higher = more uncertain; ~68 historical average shown dashed

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Source: National Federation of Independent Business — SBET.

NFIB — Single Most Important Problem (latest survey)

Share of owners citing each issue as their top problem; NSA

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Source: National Federation of Independent Business — SBET, single most important problem.