Industry Surveys — ISM & Cass
The forward-looking layer on top of the hard manufacturing data: monthly diffusion indices from the Institute for Supply Management (Manufacturing and Services PMIs and their sub-indices), plus the Cass Freight Index from Cass Information Systems — a volume gauge built from billions of dollars of payments processed each month. PMIs above 50 = expansion; below 50 = contraction.
Latest data: …
Time range:
Tip: click any legend label below a chart to hide or show that series. Each chart can be downloaded as a CSV or embedded into a blog post. The time range applies to all six charts at once. The Cass Index is published with a one-month lag (Mar reading appears in late April), so it usually trails the ISM data by one month.
ISM Manufacturing Index
(Diffusion Index, Seasonally Adjusted; 50 = Expansion / Contraction Threshold; Long-Run History from 1948)
Source: Institute for Supply Management (ISM) — Manufacturing PMI. Long-run average ~52; recessions push the index into the low-40s or below.
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ISM Manufacturing Index — Major Components
(Diffusion Indices; Bars Represent Distance From 50; SA — Total / Employment / New Orders / Backlog / Commodity Prices)
Source: Institute for Supply Management (ISM). Backlog of Orders begins 1993, Commodity Prices begins 2003 (Macrobond series start).
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ISM Services Index
(Diffusion Index, Seasonally Adjusted — Composite + Employment / New Orders / Prices Sub-Indices)
Source: Institute for Supply Management (ISM) — Services Report on Business. Composite begins July 1997.
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Composite PMI — Manufacturing vs. Services
(ISM Manufacturing Total + ISM Services Composite on One Chart, with the 50 Threshold; Quick Read on Whether the Whole Economy Is Expanding)
Source: Institute for Supply Management (ISM) — Manufacturing and Services PMIs. Services dominates US output (~80% of GDP) but Manufacturing tends to lead at cycle turning points.
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Cass Freight Index — Volume of Shipments
(Index Level; Jan 1990 = 1.000; NSA — Captures the Real Movement of Goods Across All Modes of Transportation)
Source: Cass Information Systems — Volume Index of Freight Shipments. Built from billions of dollars of freight invoices processed each month; covers truckload, less-than-truckload, rail, intermodal, parcel, and air.
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Cass Freight Shipments — Year-Over-Year %
(Volume Index, % Change vs. Same Month a Year Ago; Cycle View — Negative for Most of the Post-2022 Freight Recession)
Source: Computed in-house from Cass Information Systems Volume Index. Negative bars (coral) = freight contracting vs. last year; positive (navy) = freight expanding.
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