Leading, Coincident & Lagging Indicators
The Conference Board's composite business-cycle indexes — the Leading Economic Index (LEI) plus the Coincident and Lagging indexes — with the LEI's six-month growth rate, month-over-month change, and the movement of its ten components. NBER recessions shaded.
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Index of Leading Economic Indicators
Conference Board LEI — index level, 2016 = 100, seasonally adjusted
Source: The Conference Board — Composite Index of Leading Indicators (2016=100, SA). Shaded bands: NBER recessions.
Leading, Coincident & Lagging Indexes
The three composite business-cycle indexes — 2016 = 100, SA. Leading turns first; lagging turns last.
Source: The Conference Board — Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident & Lagging Indicators (2016=100, SA). Shaded bands: NBER recessions.
LEI — Six-Month Growth Rate
Annualized % change over the prior six months — the classic recession signal
Source: The Conference Board — ((LEI₍t₎ / LEI₍t-6₎)² − 1) × 100. Shaded bands: NBER recessions.
Source: The Conference Board — Composite Index of Leading Indicators, monthly % change.
LEI Components — Standardized 6-Month Change
Each component's own 6-month swing, standardized (z-score), sign-oriented so positive = supportive of growth. A contribution proxy — toggle series in the legend.
Sources: FRED (weekly hours, jobless claims, consumer- & capital-goods orders, building permits, 10yr–fed funds spread, consumer expectations), in-house (ISM new orders, S&P 500), and The Conference Board (Leading Credit Index). Standardization is in-house; not the Conference Board's official weighted contributions.